It's show time… by @BloggersRUs

It's show time…

by Tom Sullivan

Polls are open across most of the country.

Monday morning, Cook's Political Report moved nine seats towards Democrats:

A "Red Exodus" is contributing to the potential "Blue Wave:" of Republicans' 41 open seats, 15 are rated as Toss Ups or worse, and another five are only in Lean Republican.

Just by winning all of the races at least "leaning" their way, Democrats would net 16 of the 23 seats they need for a majority. In that scenario, Democrats would only need to win eight of the 30 races in Toss Up to win control (they currently hold one Toss Up, Minnesota's 1st CD). Conversely, Republicans would likely need to win 23 of the 30 Toss Up races to keep their majority. That's not impossible, but it's very difficult.

The shift is another indication Democrats have the edge they need to retake the U.S. House. FiveThirtyEight sees a 1 in 5 chance Democrats will win control of the U.S. Senate.

NEW at @CookPolitical: 10 final House rating changes. Biggest moves are towards Dems: #FL25: Diaz-Balart (R) - Likely R to Lean R #GA06: Handel (R) - Lean R to Toss Up #MI06: Upton (R) - Likely R to Lean R #PA10: Perry (R) - Lean R to Toss Up #WA08: OPEN (R) - Toss Up to Lean D
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2018

The New York Times' Upshot finds a 3-point move towards Democrats since its September baseline numbers.

Nate Silver responded, "This is the single most terrifying bit of poll-related data for Republicans, in that Democrats made gains in a pretty diverse array of districts, which might lead one to wonder what's happening in the districts that *haven't* been polled recently."

As filmmaker Michael Moore reminds all who will listen:

IGNORE THE POLLSTERS! In this week's NY Times/Siena poll of the Senate race in Texas they reached out to 51,983 Texans. Only 800 gave them an answer! And of the 7,219 young voters (18-29 yrs old) they "polled", only 66 responded! Polls are wrong! Keep working & making calls!
— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) November 4, 2018

As we saw yesterday, the youth votes in several key states is breaking records. They are not being captured in the polls.

Democracy itself is on the line. Perhaps not only just in this country. Your actions today matter.

People on the sidewalk, at a birthday party, at the grocery store, etc., have asked my take on what will happen tonight. Nobody has seen a mid-term election quite like this. Early voting is at near-presidential levels. Will Beto win? Will Stacey? I tell them I don't know. But I do know whatever the outcome those who work hard today to get out the vote will not feel like road kill tonight. They might even feel they helped save the world.

Or helped strong women save the rest of us.

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